2018 Oscar Predictions: So This Looks Like a Fun One, Yeah?

dunkirk-oscars


I’m always a little torn about when to start predicting Oscars in a given year.

Ultimately, September is probably a little too early, but the fact is I did just get an FYC screener, and more pertinently, I’m about to leave for a vacation abroad and don’t have time to put together the post I originally planned on this week. So here we go.

A lot of potential players have already premiered, and that’s what I’ll be focusing on. The Oscar predictions below only take into account films that are known quantities — whether they’ve opened theatrically or played a festival.

Updates and additional categories will be added over next few weeks and months. In the mean time, let me know what you think!

get-out-oscars


BEST PICTURE
Battle of the Sexes
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Stronger
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Other possibilities: Detroit, Downsizing, The Florida Project, Molly’s Game, Victoria and Abdul, Wind River, Wonderstruck

Still out there: All the Money in the World, Blade Runner 2049, The Greatest Showman, Last Flag Flying, Phantom Thread, The Post, Wonder Wheel

Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, and The Shape of Water feel like the only true locks at this stage, though I think Three Billboards and Mudbound also feel pretty solid from the sound of them. Outside of that, it simply depends on how good these mystery movies are.

*****

mudbound-oscars


BEST DIRECTOR
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Dee Rees, Mudbound
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

Other possibilities: Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit; Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird; Todd Haynes, Wonderstruck; Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game

Still out there: Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel; Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread; Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying; Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World; Steven Spielberg, The Post; Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049

Three women in the mix is a good thing, but just like Best Picture, this looks like it might end up being a race between del Toro, Nolan, and Wright — unless Anderson, Spielberg, Linklater, or someone else wants to make a go at it.

*****

darkest-hour-gary-oldman-oscars


BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Andrew Garfield, Breathe
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Other possibilities: Steven Carell, Battle of the Sexes; Jason Clarke, Mudbound; Hugh Jackman, Logan; Jeremy Renner, Wind River; Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.

Still out there: Chadwick Boseman, Marshall; Kenneth Branagh, Murder on the Orient Express; Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying; Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying; Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread; Idris Elba, The Mountain Between Us; Tom Hanks, The Post; Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman

Best Actor is both the most shallow and most locked-up category of this bunch. It’s Oldman’s to lose, which is wonderful for him, but we can only hope one of the unknowns can pose something of a challenge to his Churchill. (If I had to pick one, give me Cranston.)

*****

shape-of-water-sally-hawkins-oscars


BEST ACTRESS
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Other possibilities: Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool; Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game; Diane Kruger, In the Fade; Jennifer Lawrence, mother!; Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project; Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Still out there: Meryl Streep, The Post; Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World; Kate Winslet, The Mountain Between Us; Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

Just like last year, Best Actress is a far superior category to its male counterpart. I could see any of the six runners-up cracking the top five, which doesn’t say much about the unknowns — freaking Streep, Williams, and double Winslet!

I like Hawkins and Robbie at the moment, but it’s genuinely wide open. Awesome stuff.

*****

willem-dafoe-florida-project-oscars


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Other possibilities: Jason Mitchell, Mudbound; Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water; Patrick Stewart, Logan; Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name

Still out there: Sterling K. Brown, Marshall; Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying; Bob Odenkirk, The Post; Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World; Michael Stuhlbarg, The Post; Justin Timberlake, Wonder Wheel

Since Cannes, this has felt like a Dafoe win, but you can envision a world in which Rockwell slays or Hammer melts hearts. Stay tuned.

*****

allison-janney-i-tonya-oscars


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Melissa Leo, Novitiate
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour

Other possibilities: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound; Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled; Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!; Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Still out there: Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread; Sarah Paulson, The Post; Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel; Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman

Guys, CJ Cregg is going to win an Oscar, isn’t she????

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One Response to 2018 Oscar Predictions: So This Looks Like a Fun One, Yeah?

  1. Brittani September 25, 2017 at 10:01 pm

    Predicting Oscars this far out is hard for me too. Like, right now Battle of the Sexes to me doesn’t feel like it’s going to get anywhere near Oscar. Nor does The Greatest Showman.

    Dunkirk and The Shape of Water feel like locks. Maybe Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri too.

    I hope Get Out gets a ton of nominations.

    War for the Planet of the Apes needs to win best visual effects or I fear I may actually kill someone.

    Reply

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